Pacific Union
Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3 2014
Steven M. Gothelf
Broker Associate
Properties for Sale    |    Neighborhood Data    |    Pacific Union Blog
San Francisco: Q3 Results
The number of homes sold in Pacific Union's San Francisco region was down somewhat in the third quarter year over year, but the average sales price was appreciably higher, reflecting substantial confidence in the local real estate market and the overall economy. Inventory remained tight, as owners held off putting their homes on the market despite the remarkable run-up in prices over the past two years. One reason for this is that once sellers become move-up buyers, they face the same problem as other home shoppers across the Bay Area: lack of inventory.

Noe Valley was particularly popular with buyers, and condominiums sold well across the entire city. The most active price point was for homes priced up to $2 million. Multiple offers remained standard for almost all fairly priced properties, although the number of offers and the intensity of bidding has waned over the past year.

Looking Forward: San Francisco's robust economy and high-paying jobs combined with historically low interest rates gives us confidence that real estate activity will remain strong throughout the fourth quarter. The winter months will see a typical seasonal slowdown, which presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers to get a jump on the competition.
Median Sales Price
The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price.
Single-Family Homes — Median Sales Price
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Condominiums — Median Sales Price
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Months’ Supply of Inventory
The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market.
Single-Family Homes — Months’ Supply of Inventory
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Condominiums — Months’ Supply of Inventory
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Average Days on the Market
Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close.
Single-Family Homes — Average Days on the Market
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Condominiums — Average Days on the Market
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Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes.
Single-Family Homes — Percentage of Properties Under Contract
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Condominiums — Percentage of Properties Under Contract
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Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the final list price, which may include price reductions from the original list price, determines the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount. It also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.
Single-Family Homes — Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
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Condominiums — Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
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Delving into San Francisco’s Districts
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Pacific Union and John Burns Real Estate Consulting Team Up
to Deliver Exclusive 2017 Outlook
We are asked almost daily to predict the future of real estate and to answer the question “When is the best time to invest in the market?”

While Pacific Union’s regional and local market knowledge is significant and our decision-support tools are comprehensive and informative, we are not qualified as economists to provide substantive, forward-looking advice beyond a season or a few quarters.

That’s why we are pleased to announce that Pacific Union has formed an exclusive partnership with John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC) to publish the first San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Outlook 2017.

JBREC is the leading national source of independent housing research, advice, and consulting, with the goal of helping investors make informed housing-industry decisions. JBREC backs its research with detailed data, proprietary tools, and experienced professionals who hold doctorate degrees.

John Burns, president of his namesake consulting firm, will leverage his 20-plus years of national real estate consulting experience — as well as his MBA from UCLA and bachelor’s degree in economics from Stanford University — to provide a lens into San Francisco Bay Area real estate through 2017.

On Wednesday, Nov. 5 at 5 p.m., John and I will proudly introduce the exclusive report at the SFJAZZ Center in San Francisco. We will deliver a content-rich hour of key macro- and microeconomic attributes, risks, and variables that drive our residential real estate markets, including population growth; job growth and quality; mortgage rates; and new supply of housing units.

The presentation will include a thorough overview of the Bay Area, plus a detailed examination of the nine regions Pacific Union serves: Contra Costa County, the East Bay, Marin County, Napa County, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Sonoma County, Sonoma Valley, and Tahoe/Truckee.

While our industry has multiple indexes that reflect the previous quarter’s results — what we call “trailing perspective” — this exclusive presentation and report will offer our real estate professionals and their clients a look into the future of Bay Area real estate.

Look for details from your Pacific Union real estate professional regarding the November event, which will be open to 350 attendees on a first-come, first-served basis. We will also stream the presentation via a live simulcast in both English and Mandarin.

Once again, Pacific Union strives to innovate and provide thoughtful market intelligence to our clients, and our partnership with JBREC is the next step in fulfilling that goal.

Sincerely,
Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union
Bay Area 10-Year Overview
Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2014, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.
10 Year Chart
Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.
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Steven M. Gothelf
Broker Associate
415.345.3063
sgothelf@pacunion.com
www.SteveGothelf.com
One Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 500
San Francisco, CA 94129
Pacific Union
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